2012 Predictions

As has been my tradition since 2006, I just completed my election predictions
(not forecasts, predictions). This is the first time they’ve ever been publicized besides via text message. Just a note- in the past, I’ve overestimated Democratic performance, so there could be an unintentional bias toward Republicans as a control.

President

The popular vote will be a statistical tie (<1%) with the President edging out Governor Romney. Both will be at approximately 49%.

The President will win the Electoral College 277-261 with the election “tipping” with Ohio.

Congress

The Republicans blew (what seemed to be a year ago) a good chance at recapturing the Senate. The Democrats will control the Senate in the 113th Congress by a 52-48 margin with the Independents caucusing with the Democrats.

The Democrats will pick up House seats, but not as many as people think. The Republicans will maintain a 241-194 edge in the House.

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3 thoughts on “2012 Predictions

  1. FWIW, your projections and mine differ by one state – I’m thinking Wisconsin could go red. On the other hand, I think Virginia could very well go blue, which would cancel that out. Certainly is a tough race to call. I think your popular vote guess will be very close – I’m predicting a <1% Romney advantage.

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