As has been my tradition since 2006, I just completed my election predictions
(not forecasts, predictions). This is the first time they’ve ever been publicized besides via text message. Just a note- in the past, I’ve overestimated Democratic performance, so there could be an unintentional bias toward Republicans as a control.
The popular vote will be a statistical tie (<1%) with the President edging out Governor Romney. Both will be at approximately 49%.
The President will win the Electoral College 277-261 with the election “tipping” with Ohio.
The Republicans blew (what seemed to be a year ago) a good chance at recapturing the Senate. The Democrats will control the Senate in the 113th Congress by a 52-48 margin with the Independents caucusing with the Democrats.
The Democrats will pick up House seats, but not as many as people think. The Republicans will maintain a 241-194 edge in the House.