2012 Predictions

As has been my tradition since 2006, I just completed my election predictions
(not forecasts, predictions). This is the first time they’ve ever been publicized besides via text message. Just a note- in the past, I’ve overestimated Democratic performance, so there could be an unintentional bias toward Republicans as a control.


The popular vote will be a statistical tie (<1%) with the President edging out Governor Romney. Both will be at approximately 49%.

The President will win the Electoral College 277-261 with the election “tipping” with Ohio.


The Republicans blew (what seemed to be a year ago) a good chance at recapturing the Senate. The Democrats will control the Senate in the 113th Congress by a 52-48 margin with the Independents caucusing with the Democrats.

The Democrats will pick up House seats, but not as many as people think. The Republicans will maintain a 241-194 edge in the House.

3 thoughts on “2012 Predictions

  1. FWIW, your projections and mine differ by one state – I’m thinking Wisconsin could go red. On the other hand, I think Virginia could very well go blue, which would cancel that out. Certainly is a tough race to call. I think your popular vote guess will be very close – I’m predicting a <1% Romney advantage.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s