It seems as if Nate Silver has the true bragging rights in his spat against Joe Scarborough and other pundits. If Silver’s math has been as dead-on throughout the election cycle as it was on Election Day, then perhaps Iowa was never really in play. It was, however, one of the seven states that Obama campaign manager Jim Messina considered crucial to Electoral College victory.
It wouldn’t be hard to believe that Iowa was not as close as we thought. Governor Romney never quite jibed with the particular brand of Iowa’s conservative base, and we would likely be talking about a second Clinton term if Obama hadn’t catapulted his prospects there in 2008. Political races clearly come down to fundamentals: turn-out, issues, economics, and voter sentiment.
Read the rest at Politically Inclined.